I'll take the Orange here with 2 weeks to prepare. Although they really have nothing to play for and will be getting a lot of inexperienced players out there today I think 7.5 points is just too much value when you look at how they match up with Pitt. Pittsburgh will run the ball 62% of the time and James Conner is a beast, but he faces arguably the best run defense he's had to go against all year and they are fresh. They allow 3.25 yards per carry on the year 2.92 on the road and 3.39 in conference play while only allowing 6 TD's all year. To put that in perspective Pitt's defense is allowing 5.39 ypc in conference play and 5.5+ over their last 5 games combined.
Pitt is a young team and I think Syracuse will get some of their inexperienced players out there, but the fact that they will be much fresher than Pitt's young team at this point in the season gives me confidence of sticking with the Orange even though Pitt has much more to play for. Syracuses pass defense is good enough, but their run defense is special when you consider they have only allowed 1 opponent to rush for more than 4 yards per carry. That just so happened to be the team with the best QB int he nation in Jameis Winston. Nobody has rushed for more than 200 yards either. Pitt is 0-4 when they have been held under 200 yards or under 4 yards per carry.
Syracuse has not announced their starting QB, but whoever it is I think he'll take care of the ball as Syracuse has 4 turnovers all season long on the road and are +9 on the road in TO margin. Now this is where they can steal this game, because Pitt is not a team forcing many turnovers. In fact they have 1 INT in their last 5 games and have a -7 TO margin.
